Venezuelan Theory of Chaos Against Tyranny

 Published in Spanish at  El Tiempo Latino and El Planeta 10/12/2020:

Teoria del Caos Venezuela ETL

Teoria del Caos Venezuela El Planeta

Venezuelan Theory of Chaos Against Tyranny 

Dr. Carlos Ponce 

Senior Fellow, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Senior Lecturer at Columbia University

The result of two decades of "Socialism of the XXI Century" in Venezuela is a failed country, plagued by corruption, lack of services, hunger, misery, violence, crime, destruction, and on the road to a food catastrophe. A country that forces millions of "walkers" (refugees) to flee seeking to survive walking for days among different countries. A country controlled by drug traffickers, thieves, mafias, guerrillas, and terrorist groups. The communism of Chávez-Maduro and his Cuban puppeteers who achieved the reverse effect of King Midas, transforming an oil-rich country into a calamity. A country without medicines, health services, gasoline, food, running water, communications, and electricity. 

The false egalitarianism to hide a large drug trafficking business, money laundering, mineral trafficking, prostitution, and corruption. A socialist message full of blood of systemic human rights violations. It is no longer only the reports of numerous non-profit organizations in Venezuela and global human rights organizations like Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch, warning of the complete destruction of the democratic model and of the systematic violation of human rights and crimes against humanity. There are also the reports from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and recently the harsh report of the Independent International Mission to Determine the Facts about the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). All these reports cite instances of crimes against humanity, torture, persecution, forced disappearances, repression and systemic violations of human rights by the regime of Nicolas Maduro and his accomplices.

Maduro's dictatorship has been sustained in power thanks to repression, the iron control of police and para-police violence, the purchase of “opposition leaders”, the Cuban intelligence apparatus, and the support of other totalitarian regimes such as those of China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Despite the fact that the opposition leader and president of the Venezuelan Congress, Juan Guaido, has achieved the support and recognition of the United States and approximately 60 countries, who recognize him as the legitimate president of Venezuela, after almost 2 years, his popular support has declined and the lack of a clear medium-term strategy and the contradictions of his actions and of the weak leadership of the four main opposition parties (G4) that support him, they have failed in their attempt to remove Nicolas Maduro from his usurpation of power. Various unsuccessful and inexperienced negotiation strategies and contradictory positions have marked this failure. The complicity of various corrupt economic operators (front men) of the regime with many opposition leaders has also made it easier for inertia to allow Maduro to stay in power.

The United States government has been increasing pressure against Maduro and his criminal environment through declarations, pressure, sanctions, trials, and economic restrictions. Although the sanctions have been effective because they have weakened the Maduro dictatorship, their progressiveness has prevented a sudden shock impact, instead the regime has been looking for alternatives and various ways to evade the sanctions. On the other hand, the unrestricted and unidirectional support from the Donald Trump administration to Guaido and the G-4 has prevented the US from seeing the different game boards where the Maduro regime operates, and the criminal groups that co-govern with him. The United States government must open itself to various actors and also bet on the strengthening of territorial works and the consolidation of strategic social movements such as the active protest of student, labor, religious, and community sectors. The lack of services, gasoline, health, income, and food is a time bomb that can explode in the regime hands. A long-term strategy that includes planning and scenario analysis has been lacking. This should be a priority for US foreign policy towards Venezuela. The short-term policy has not led to any major successes.

Once again, the “electoral” discussion opens in Venezuela, with a farce of parliamentary elections on December 6 without guarantees and with expected fraud. Some opposition factors have fallen into the trap and others are defoliating the daisy; but it is the chronicle of a death foretold. Mr. Guaido called for a citizen electoral “consultation” instead of the election, to ask about the election, something absurd by all means. Elections under a criminal totalitarian regime only produce benefits for the dictatorship. A citizen consultation with unmotivated population, no gasoline and a repressive regime is not a smart move. There is no way out of iron dictatorships with pure elections, nor does the dictatorship come out with citizen consultations or other face-lifting strategies for corrupt opposition leaders.

The exit from the dictatorship is neither electoral nor miraculous. The regime's paid clowns play the game of an "electoral opportunity" for regime change. Others expect an international invasion to "rescue" Venezuela, but that will not happen in a country controlled by criminal groups, the cost is very high and there is no one to bear the political cost. After 21 years of failures due to the expectation of easy and miraculous way-out, something should be learned.

In the same way, Venezuelans play the political debate of the United States election as it will really help to get out of the tyranny. Donald Trump has already shown his cards and the tyrant is still there, manipulating the Venezuelan communist threat and challenging openly the regime doesn’t substitute long-term strategic planning. Joe Biden brings in his team for Latin America many repeaters of the failed policies towards Cuba and Venezuela of the Obama administration. Venezuela has fallen into a destructive anomie that leaves a scorched earth, a process that leaves great uncertainty about the future and the possibilities of getting out of this nightmare.

However, there is a factor that cannot be neglected in scenarios like these—chaos. Chaos theory rationalizes the impact of seemingly disordered and disconnected dynamic systems and the actual synchronized effect to achieve change. But even chaos requires strategic planning. The dictatorship's ability to maneuver must be reduced. It is impossible for a government to suppress millions of people in multiple communities, states and neighborhoods at the same time and at the same time try to survive fighting against the sanctions or the scarcity of all the products and services. Much of the social protest must be spontaneous, with coordination among grassroots elements. The protest must have its natural leadership. A mistake would be to let the same people who have been putting out the protests with negotiations or marches, for their own benefits, to continue their collaboration with social control.

It is clear that the exit from the dictatorship depends on a perfect storm, which has to include coordinated and continuous systemic demonstrations / protests throughout the country, a complete international siege (maximum coordinated pressure), legal actions in various countries, no fly zone, and an attitude coherent within opposing factors. Perhaps the cycle of chaos has already started, and what Venezuelans have to do is keep pushing for one day to pick up the glasses of a regime that seems very solid and strong, but the reality is a regime that it is very fragile.